Market Survey: Expectations Are for a Stronger Fall Market Than Last Year

Buyers Starting to Feel Some Relief

Mid-Atlantic buyers have been stuck between a rock and a hard place with the combination of high home prices, elevated mortgage rates, and a tight supply of homes on the market. Throughout 2024, inventory has improved and buyers who remain in the market are finally feeling the effects of more listings, according to the latest Bright MLS subscriber survey.

Over the past year, the top two struggles for buyers have consistently been finding the right home and submitting a successful offer. However, buyers are now finding the process a little easier. In August 2023, nearly half of homebuyers had more trouble finding the right home (45.1%) compared to just over a third of buyers (35.8%) in August 2024. Similarly, the share of buyer agents who stated that submitting a successful offer was somewhat or very difficult dropped from about a third (32.5%) to less than a quarter (22.3%).
 

 

Both first-time buyers and repeat buyers are having an easier time. With more new listings coming to the market this fall, buyers will have an expanded selection, making it easier for them to find a home and make a successful offer.

Sellers Are More Active Than They Were at the Start of 2024

Some sellers will cling to their ultra-low mortgage rates; however, others have motivations to sell their home and will weigh the pros and cons of listing now. The drop in mortgage rates may make the financial tradeoff worthwhile if their current home doesn’t suit their needs. Compared to the beginning of the year, agents and brokers are now reporting fewer potential clients who have paused or stopped listing their home.
 

 

At the beginning of the year, close to two in five agents and brokers reported that they had a prospective seller back out of listing their home. In Bright’s most recent survey, only 31.1% of agents and brokers had a potential seller decide not to list. One of the main reasons for hesitant sellers has been difficulty finding a home to move into—but more inventory is helping to alleviate that issue. The share of agents saying prospective sellers decided not to sell because of the inability to find another home to buy dropped to its lowest level (35.6%) since the question was introduced in February.

Will Mortgage Rates Flip Seasonality This Year?

Buyers and sellers tend to be more active in the Mid-Atlantic during the spring and early summer months. However, more sellers and more buyers may be on the way according to the outlook from agents and brokers working in the Mid-Atlantic, and dropping mortgage rates could be a primary reason.

The Bright MLS seller index, which compares the number of agents and brokers who anticipate high to very high activity in the coming three months to the number expecting low to very low activity, has been significantly higher than last year and has steadily risen since May, reaching its highest level of 44.9. For sellers, as rates fall and life changes continue to happen, the math will begin to make more sense, and more sellers will enter the market. According to Bright’s weekly reports, new listing activity has been on the rise for the past 10 weeks.
 

 

Agents and brokers are also optimistic about buyer activity. The sentiment regarding buyers edged up in September to 55.1. Though the Bright MLS buyer index is only modestly better than the past two months, this is the first time in 2024 it is higher than 2023.

For buyers shopping now, new options and more room for negotiations will help them cross the finish line. Lower mortgage rates will entice other buyers to get into the market, setting the stage for a busy fall.

About Bright

Bright is proud to be the source of truth for comprehensive real estate data in the Mid-Atlantic, with market intelligence currently covering six states (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia) and the District of Columbia. Bright MLS’s innovative tool library—both created and curated—provides services and award-winning support to well over 100k real estate professionals, enabling their delivery on the promise of home to over half a million homebuyers and sellers monthly. In 2023, Bright subscribers facilitated $104B in real estate transactions through the company’s platform.

A total of 553 agents representing recent homebuyers and 706 agents representing recent home sellers responded to Bright MLS’s survey. The survey was conducted between September 5 and September 12, 2024. Full survey results are available here. More research and analysis on the housing market is available from Bright Research.